TOUR’23 Ultimate Wrap: How Jonas Vingegaard Gained the Tour

Tour’23 Ultimate Breakdown: Spencer Martin breaks down precisely the place/how Jonas Vingegaard gained the 2023 Tour de France and what it could actually train us about future clashes between the 2 famous person GC contenders.

– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton publication. Join right here for full entry. –

The 2023 Tour de France podium

Whereas it’s unhappy the race is over, now we have a doubtlessly even higher race, La Vuelta a España, developing in late August, the place we are going to see Jonas Vingegaard face off in opposition to superstars like Primož Roglič, Remco Evenepoel, and up-and-comer Juan Ayuso.

After having a couple of days to ponder Jonas Vingegaard’s dominant experience to take his second profession Tour de France victory, and make sure his standing as the game’s premier grand tour contender, I wished to interrupt down how and the place he gained the three-week race over his rival and runner-up Tadej Pogačar to find what might be realized for future clashes between these two riders.

At first look, Vingegaard gained after blitzing the Alp’s largest climbs and Tour’s single time trial and being just too highly effective for even the uber-talented Pogačar to parry. Vingegaard and his Jumbo crew did an ideal job of placing stress on Pogačar by the early portion of the race by placing large kilojoules into the younger Slovenian’s legs by setting a tough tempo on the entrance of the peloton at almost each flip, and trusting Vingegaard’s confirmed skill to take time on Pogačar within the third week of grand excursions after a tough two weeks of racing.

Nonetheless, after we look nearer, Vingegaard’s large profitable hole was primarily resulting from Pogačar cratering on the race’s two most essential phases (16 & 17), which was virtually actually brought on by his injury-impaired build-up and/or an sickness. In fact, Jumbo would argue that they took this suboptimal build-up into consideration when planning their hard-pace technique, however until they plan on crashing Pogačar out of subsequent 12 months’s Spring Classics, this situation isn’t precisely replicable. Which means that whereas Vingegaard is at the moment no doubt the very best Tour de France rider on the planet, that one other steamroll efficiency within the 2024 Tour, and even on the upcoming Vuelta, actually isn’t a foregone conclusion.

Will Vingegaard be celebrating in Spain

Ultimate GC Prime Ten:
1) Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo) +0
2) Tadej Pogačar (UAE) +7’29
3) Adam Yates (UAE) +10’56
4) Simon Yates (Jayco) +12’23
5) Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos) +13’17
6) Pello Bilbao (Bahrain) +13’27
7) Jai Hindley (Bora) +14’44
8) Felix Gall (AG2R) +16’09
9) David Gaudu (FDJ) +23’08
10) Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) +26’30

To assist us digest the tip consequence, and try to grasp what precisely occurred and the place errors/profitable strikes have been made, I’ve remoted each stage the place the highest three gained/misplaced time relative to one another and the way a lot time they gained(+) or misplaced(-).

The place Time Was Gained/Misplaced

Stage 1 Hilly
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -4

Stage 2 Hilly
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -7

Stage 5 Mountains
Jonas Vingegaard +0
Tadej Pogačar -1’04

Stage 6 Summit End
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -28

Stage 9 Summit End
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -8

Stage 13 Summit End
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -8

Stage 14 Mountains
Jonas Vingegaard +0
Tadej Pogačar -1

Stage 16 Time Trial
Jonas Vingegaard +0
Tadej Pogačar -1’38

Stage 17 Mountains
Jonas Vingegaard +0
Tadej Pogačar -5’47

Stage 20 Mountains
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -6

When the Podium Gained/Misplaced Time Relative to Vingegaard:

Week 1 (Levels 1-9)
Pogačar -17
Yates -4’39

Week 2 (Levels 10-15)
Pogačar +7
Yates -1’01

Week 3 (Levels 16-21)
Yates -5’16
Pogačar -7’19

The above graphs and figures present us exactly what we might count on; that Vingegaard took time on Pogačar along with his stage 5 assault, earlier than Pogačar slowly nailed again his deficit over the course of the following 11 phases, earlier than Vingegaard delivered his knockout blow within the stage 16 TT and stage 17 climb of Col de la Loze.

The truth that the second week, the one part of the race the place Pogačar took time on Vingegaard, was the place third-place finisher Adam Yates was capable of restrict his losses to roughly a minute, exhibits us that the parcours by this part have been considerably much less difficult and that Vingegaard and Jumbo have been clearly in a holding sample and never nervous about Pogačar slowly taking again time.

Curiously, Pogačar took time on Vingegaard on 6 out of the ten phases the place there was a time hole created between the 2 riders.

However, as is changing into a pattern within the battle between the 2 riders, Pogačar will persistently take time on Vingegaard, however lose a lot bigger chunks of time than Vingegaard on the small variety of days the place he’s gapped.

Course Sort The place Time Was Gained/Misplaced Relative to Vingegaard

Particular person Time Trials:
Pogačar -1’38 (misplaced)

• Uphill Time Trial Kilometers (6.4km)
  Pogačar -1’07 (misplaced)

Mountain Levels:
Pogačar -6’13 (misplaced)

• Summit Finishes:
  Pogačar +36-seconds (gained)

Time Bonuses:
Pogačar +22 (gained)

Vingegaard/Pogačar Time Distinction Per Stage Sort
Particular person Time Trial (1): 98-seconds per stage (Vingegaard)

• Uphill time trial kilometers (6.3km): 10.4-seconds per kilometer (Vingegaard)

Mountain Levels (7): 53-seconds per stage (Vingegaard)

• Summit End (3): 12-seconds per stage (Pogačar)

Time Bonus (7): 3.14-seconds per stage (Pogačar)

What’s attention-grabbing after we have a look at the course kind the place Vingegaard and Pogačar gained/misplaced time in opposition to each other is that Pogačar took time on Vingegaard by the race’s three key summit finishes (stage 6, 9, & 13), in addition to persistently by the race’s time bonuses, his poor time trial relative to Vingegaard, in addition to his collapse on the race’s hardest climb, Col de la Loze, stage 17, have been merely an excessive amount of to beat.

The Loze collapse probably can’t predict something for the long run aside from that Pogačar ought to keep away from coaching for subsequent 12 months’s Tour on his house coach whereas recovering from a damaged wrist, or doubtlessly getting sick throughout a grand tour.

Nonetheless, the misplaced time within the TT and the rising pattern of Pogačar dropping time on Vingegaard within the third week of grand excursions, does inform us that Pogačar and his crew have to re-tool his racing schedule, coaching, and Tour technique if he needs to beat Vingegaard.

5 Key Takeaways

1) Jonas Vingegaard is now, no doubt, the game’s greatest grand tour racer

After profitable his second consecutive Tour de France, there may be now little doubt that 26-year-old Dane is the world’s premier grand tour rider.

If beating the game’s all-around greatest rider, Pogačar, wasn’t sufficient, his margin of victory over second place was the most important since Vincenzo Nibali trounced a Chris Froome-less area in 2014, highlights simply how dominant his two-year run has been.

During the last three Excursions de France, Vingegaard has taken time on Tadej Pogačar within the third week of the race (2021: 12 seconds, 2022: 21 seconds, 2023: 7’19). This information level exhibits that Vingegaard has an plain benefit over Pogačar because the race wears on, the climbs get longer, and the course will get more difficult.

One other spectacular element of this victory is simply how properly Vingegaard managed his efforts by the race, like managing his small losses to Pogačar in the course of the run of uphill finishes and slowly pegging him again on the Col de Joux Airplane (stage 14), earlier than blowing open the hole on the 2 phases (16 & 17) he had circled as alternatives to take his race-winning chunks of time.

2) Jumbo-Visma had a clearly-defined pre-Tour plan and gained after religiously sticking to it

For the second straight grand tour, we’ve seen the Jumbo outfit are available in with a pre-defined technique and triumph after executing it from begin to end.

On the latest Giro d’Italia, they sat again by the race’s first 19 phases, refraining from having the crew pull again breakaways to arrange Primož Roglič sprinting for stage wins and stacking up time bonuses. As a substitute, they handed on these opportunties to avoid wasting each ounce of power to deploy at the very best alternative to take time (stage 20 TT).

At this Tour, Jumbo employed a near-opposite plan. They’d their highly effective crew set a blistering tempo on the entrance and used Wout van Aert to get into and drive breakaways, elevating the general tempo of the race so as to add fatigue to Pogačar’s legs. This ‘operation fatigue’ laid the groundwork for his or her large positive aspects within the stage 16 TT and stage 17 climb of Loze.

Essentially the most spectacular component of each of those methods is that they weren’t tempted to shift techniques when the races appeared like they have been in jeopardy (i.e., Roglič failing to take time again on Geraint Thomas on the Giro and Pogačar slowly chipping away at Vingegaard’s lead at this Tour).

It is going to be attention-grabbing to see what technique they deploy on the upcoming Vuelta, the place they’ll try to win a historic third grand tour in a single season.

3) A totally match and wholesome Pogačar can match Vingegaard within the time trials and on lengthy alpine climbs

It will be simple to take a look at the 2023 Tour and assume that Jonas Vingegaard, resulting from his dominant efficiency within the stage 16 time trial, is just too good for Tadej Pogačar to ever defeat once more in a three-week grand tour.

And, when individuals noticed the estimated energy and VAM for Vingegaard on the steepest 2.5km-long portion of the climb in the course of the stage 16 TT, this assumption gave the impression to be true.

However, if we pull this effort out for the complete 6.4km-long climb, and study the very best time trial performances from every rider all through the previous few Excursions, we will see that whereas Vingegaard was extremely robust within the time trial, his efficiency wasn’t outdoors of what Pogačar was able to at his greatest, and that the sudden improve in hole due was to a backslide from Pogačar, not a rise in pace/kind from Vingegaard.

Jonas Vingegaard Stage 16 2023 TdF Ultimate Climb:
Time: 13’31
VAM: 1803 m/h
Est. Pwr: 7.1w/kg
Grade: 6.8%
Prime Elevation: 3,400ft

Steepest 2.5km Portion (by way of CyclingWatts on twitter)
Time: 6’43
VAM: 2144 m/h
Est. Pwr: 7.6w/kg
Grade: 9.6%

Tadej Pogačar Stage 20 2020 TdF Ultimate Climb:
Time: 16’10
VAM: 1863 m/h
Est pwr: 6.9w/kg
Grade: 8.5%
Prime Elevation: 3,766ft

Observe that Pogačar’s 2020 TT effort was twice so long as Vingegaard’s in 2023 (55 minutes vs 32 minutes), so Pogačar was holding roughly 6w/kg for the 40 minutes previous to his climb, whereas Vingegaard was solely holding a excessive energy for the 20 minutes previous to his (and had descents to relaxation on vs Pogačar’s regular effort in 2020).

After we distinction Pogačar’s efforts from earlier within the race to Vingegaard’s TT efficiency on stage 16, it’s clear he was able to matching Vingegaard at his greatest, even when Vingegaard assaults on lengthy alpine climbs. Nonetheless, resulting from sickness and/or fatigue from his poor build-up, his degree dropped for the time trial and high-altitude climb of Col de la Loze.

Pogacar Assault Puy du Dome Stage 9
Ultimate 13’20
VAM: 1965 m/h
Est Pwr: 7.1w/kg
Avg Grade: 11.2%
Prime Elevation: 4,806ft

Pogačar/Vingegaard Final quarter-hour of Col du Tourmalet on Stage 6
Time: 15’00
VAM: 1,923 m/h
Est Pwr: 7.06w/kg
Avg Grade: 9.3%
Prime Elevation: 6,900ft

4) Time trials are the important thing to profitable fashionable grand excursions

With the highest two contenders at this Tour, and most grand excursions on the calendar, so evenly matched on even the toughest climbs, it shortly turns into clear simply how essential the time trials, even when they’re few in kilometers, have turn out to be to profitable fashionable grand excursions.

For the second straight grand tour, a small variety of uphill time trial kilometers have produced important time gaps between the highest two contenders.

At his greatest, Pogačar could also be able to matching Vingegaard on climbs, however, at this level, it’s clear it will likely be troublesome for him to take important time by dropping Vingegaard within the mountains.

So, if he needs to win future grand excursions by taking time on Vingegaard in bonus seconds and a handful of sprint-induced small time gaps, he must be certain he can beat, or at the very least match, Vingegaard in opposition to the clock within the third-week.

Keep in mind this pattern when future grand tour routes are launched, and the narrative varieties round whether or not it will likely be a route that favors climbers or time trialists.

In fashionable racing, the highest GC contenders are equally dominant at each, and time trials play simply as essential of a task within the remaining GC, whether or not there are 20 kilometers or 50 kilometers of them.

5) Pogačar is leaving extraordinarily beneficial ‘free’ time on the desk resulting from his UAE crew’s weak point

All of this brings us to the query of what Tadej Pogačar and his UAE crew ought to study from their second consecutive beatdown by the hands of Jumbo and Vingegaard.

First, Pogačar must have an ideal lead-in to the Tour to problem Vingegaard over three weeks.

If he needs to restrict his losses within the third week, he merely can’t afford to be constructing again from an harm sustained within the Spring Classics.

Sadly, which means that if he needs to win the Tour, he’ll probably must pause his multi-race calendar and mimic Vingegaard’s extremely centered, altitude-camp-heavy preparation.

The second is that his crew shouldn’t be at the moment properly constructed or robust sufficient to regulate early breakaways and ship Pogačar’s much-needed stage win time bonuses.

For instance, on the stage 13 run to Grand Colombier, Pogačar misplaced six free seconds as a result of his UAE crew couldn’t management the early transfer.

The identical goes for stage 9 to Puy du Dôme, the place he would have had a 10-second bonus for profitable the stage.

It would sound trivial to quibble over a couple of seconds right here and there. Nonetheless, assuming Pogačar might have restricted his TT and climbing losses to Vingegaard to 20-seconds, he would have crushed him within the general.

If his crew might handle breakaways ever higher, Pogačar might let the hole to Vingegaard develop out to shut to a minute on the highway but nonetheless take the general win.

The third is that whereas Adam Yates was a implausible addition to the crew and gave Pogačar much-needed mountain help, he was by no means sufficient of a menace for Jumbo to take him severely or for Vingegaard to must make a tricky determination if Pogačar let him experience up the highway.

Having a 3rd contender for the win, whether or not within the type of teammates Juan Ayuso or João Almeida, or Remco Evenepoel as a rival, might assist muddy the waters and permit Pogačar’s superior racing technique to thrive (like Jumbo did in 2022 to crack Pogačar).

This is able to enable Pogačar to take advantage of a possible weak point of Vingegaard, which is that he can seem overwhelmed throughout precise racing conditions late in phases, which results in errors (i.e., letting Pogačar experience in his wheel up the ultimate climb on stage 6, which left him unable to reply to Pogačar’s assault).

Rating the Total Workforce Performances All through the Tour (relative to pre-race expectations)
1) Jumbo (1x stage win, 1x GC win)
2) UAE (3x stage win, 2x GC podium)
3) Alpecin (4x stage win, 1x Inexperienced Jersey)
4) Bahrain-Victorious (3x stage win, 1x GC prime ten)
5) Ineos (2x stage win, 1x GC prime 5)
6) Cofidis (2x stage win, 1x GC prime ten
7) Bora (2x stage win, 1x GC prime ten)
8) Lidl-Trek (1x stage win, 1x KOM Jersey)
9) AG2R (1x stage win, 1x GC prime ten)
10) Jayco-Alula (1x GC prime 5)
11) QuickStep (1x stage win)
12) Groupama-FDJ (1x GC prime ten, 1x enjoyable Pinot breakaway)
13) Israel-Premier Tech (1x stage win, aggressive racing)
14) Lotto-Dtsy (1x stage runner-up, aggressive racing)
15) Uno-X (2x stage podium, plenty of aggressive racing)
16) EF-Schooling First (12x days in KOM, not a lot else regardless of proficient crew)
17) Arkea-Samsic (was in a couple of breakaways)
18) TotalEnergies (3x stage podium)
19) Intermarche (2x stage podium)
20) Astana (1x stage runner-up)
21) DSM (1x stage prime 5)
22) Movistar (1x stage podium)

# You may see the PEZ ‘TOUR’23: Stage-By-Stage Picture & Video Spherical-Up’ HERE.#

# Spencer Martin is the writer of the cycling-analysis publication Past the Peloton that breaks down the nuances of every race and solutions massive image questions surrounding crew and rider efficiency. Join now to get full entry to all of the accessible content material and race breakdowns. #